Projected capability
Promises, forecasts, roadmaps, and credible expectations.
Horizon Gap Index · HGI
How far ahead of reality is the future we're being sold?
Two curves compete: projected capability and observed capability. Their distance is the Horizon Gap.
Pilot methodology v0.1September 23: +5.0
Interactive history
Projected vs. observed
Projected capabilityObserved capability
September 23: projected capability rises from 106.8 to 107.4 while observed capability rises from 101.4 to 102.4. Claude Opus 5.5 is shipping at lower cost, new Macs are running trillion-parameter models locally, and Geely claims a 4.5-minute charge from 10% to 70%. The gap narrows four-tenths from +5.4 to +5.0.
Method
What moves the lines?
Observed capability
Shipped products, reproducible benchmarks, public deployments, verified results, and accessible systems.
No rewriting yesterday
Historical values stay frozen except for documented corrections.