Projected capability
Promises, forecasts, roadmaps, and credible expectations.
Horizon Gap Index · HGI
How far ahead of reality is the future we're being sold?
Two curves compete: projected capability and observed capability. Their distance is the Horizon Gap.
Pilot methodology v0.1November 7: +1.7
Interactive history
Projected vs. observed
Projected capabilityObserved capability
November 7. Projected capability holds at 117.6 and observed capability holds at 115.9. HGI remains +1.7. Field reports show AI-assisted cyber operations and a planned defense program. A comparable new capability benchmark is still needed to score a change.
Method
What moves the lines?
Observed capability
Shipped products, reproducible benchmarks, public deployments, verified results, and accessible systems.
No rewriting yesterday
Historical values stay frozen except for documented corrections.